Weekly jobless claims rose to 1.4 million, underscoring the outsized role the unemployment insurance system is playing among U.S. safety net programs — just when a $600 weekly federal aid payment for people without jobs is set to expire at the end of this week.
Last week’s pace of unemployment applications was up from 1.3 million the previous week. Before the pandemic, the number of weekly applications had never exceeded 700,000.
The U.S. Labour Department said Thursday that roughly 32 million people are receiving unemployment benefits, though that figure could include double-counting by some states. Some economists say the figure is likely closer to 25 million.
An additional 975,000 applied for jobless aid under a separate program that has made self-employed and gig workers eligible for the first time. That figure isn’t adjusted for seasonal trends, so it’s reported separately.
The resurgence of confirmed viral cases across the country has forced some businesses to close a second time or to impose tighter restrictions on customers in response to state mandates. The resulting pullback in business activity has hindered job growth and likely forced additional layoffs.
Combining aid packages
The federal government’s $600 weekly benefit for laid-off workers, which is in addition to whatever jobless aid a state provides, is the last major source of economic help from the $2 trillion relief package that Congress approved in March. A small business lending program and a one-time $1,200 payment have largely run their course.
Members of Congress are negotiating another aid package that might extend the $600 benefit, though likely at a lower level. With state aid packages combined with the $600 weekly federal benefit, research shows roughly two-thirds of unemployed people are receiving more in aid than they earned at their former jobs — a finding that’s led Republicans to argue that it is discouraging people from returning to work.
Yet the additional money has also been a key source of support for people who lost jobs that no longer exist or who fear being infected by the virus if they return to work.
The federal jobless aid has also helped protect the U.S. economy. Unemployment aid accounted for six per cent of all U.S. income in May, a greater share than even Social Security. Economists say it’s one reason why retail spending rebounded as quickly as it did in May and June, helping fuel a modest economic rebound.
The economic impact of rising cases
With confirmed cases of the coronavirus having risen in 46 states compared with two weeks ago, economists say they’re increasingly worried that any recovery is now in jeopardy. Twenty-two states have paused or reversed the reopening of businesses, according to economists at Bank of America.
Real-time measures of the economy suggest that companies are pulling back on hiring and that more small businesses are closing permanently. Credit card spending has been stuck at about 10 per cent below year-ago levels for nearly a month, according to JPMorgan Chase, after having risen steadily from mid-April to mid-June.
In May and June, businesses had rehired enough to more than offset the wave of layoffs. But the Census data now suggests that the economy is losing jobs again.
According to data from the consumer-review website Yelp, nearly 73,000 small businesses have closed for good since the pandemic intensified in March, up 28 per cent from mid-June.
“Every time a business closes, that makes the recovery longer and harder, so that worries me,” said Ernie Tedeschi, an economist at the investment bank Evercore ISI.
People deciding which bills to pay
Many jobless Americans say they fear that a slow and prolonged recovery would be hard to survive without the $600 weekly aid from the federal government. If that payment were eliminated, total unemployment benefits would shrink by one-half to two-thirds, depending on a recipient’s state.
Melissa Bennett has been using the federal jobless benefit to help pay her $1,900 monthly health insurance bill, which she’s paid on her own since losing her employer-sponsored plan in June. That’s when she was laid off from her front desk job at a vacation time-share rental in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, a beach town that has become a COVID-19 hot spot.
Without the $600, her unemployment benefit will fall to just $200 a week, and she’ll have to decide whether to pay her mortgage or her utilities first.
Many analysts say they worry that the expiration of the federal payments will cause a wave of evictions of renters who won’t be able to afford their monthly payments. Even before the pandemic, spiking rents in most major cities were squeezing the finances of lower-income families.
One in four renters — 11 million households — were spending more than half their income on rent before the recession, said Priscilla Aldomovar, CEO of Enterprise Community Partners, a non-profit group focused on affordable housing.
Enterprise owns 13,000 rental units, and Aldomovar said that so far, the renters have largely kept up with their payments, which she attributes to the federal aid.
“It’s very precarious, but it’s been held together by the stimulus,” she said.
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