Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates
Average mortgage rates dropped last Friday. But, overall, there was no change throughout the week. And recent daily movements have generally canceled each other out. But that’s good, considering that these rates are exceptionally low.
Mortgage rates may drop slightly today, given the early movements in the markets. But things may change as the day progresses.Find and lock low rates (August 30, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinance rates
|traditional 30 year fixed||2.808%||2.808%||Stable|
|traditional 15 year fixed||1.995%||1.996%||Stable|
|traditional 20 year fixed||2.391%||2.391%||Stable|
|traditional 10 year fixed||1.875%||1.922%||Stable|
|30 year fixed FHA||2.688%||3.343%||Stable|
|15 Year Fixed FHA||2.43%||3.031%||Stable|
|5/1 ARM FHA||2.5%||3.207%||+0.01%|
|30 year fixed VA||2.25%||2.421%||Stable|
|15 year fixed VA||2.25%||2.571%||Stable|
|5/1 ARM VA||2.5%||2.386%||+0.01%|
|Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate estimates here.|
COVID-19 Mortgage Update: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see how coronavirus could affect your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock in a Mortgage Rate Today?
As long as mortgage rates remain bearish, you need not fear. And it hardly matters whether you lock or float your rate. Because you are likely to make very little profit or loss either way. But it cannot last forever.
So you should worry about what is happening next. And most experts are expecting an increase, although they differ on whether they will be small or large. Now, you can legitimately argue that experts are often proven wrong. And this can cause you to ignore their advice. That’s fine, as long as you recognize the risks.
But, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
- lock if closing 7 Day
- lock if closing 15 Day
- lock if closing 30 Day
- swimming on water if closing 45 Day
- swimming on water if closing 60 Day
However, I do not claim absolute foresight. And your personal analysis may be as good as mine – or better. So you can choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of the game at around 9:50 am (ET) this morning. Compared to the same time last Friday the data were:
- NS Yield on 10 Year Treasury Note down from 1.34% to 1.30%. (good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically follow these particular Treasury bond yields
- major stock indexes Most were more immediately after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying stocks, they are often selling bonds, which pushes their prices down and raises yield and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the index is low
- oil prices fallen To $68.28 to $68.76 per barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in generating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
- gold prices increased to $1,816 $1,790 1 oz. (good for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for rates when gold rises, and better for rates when gold falls. When investors are worried about the economy, gold rises. And worried investors tend to lower rates.
- CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – 50. increased from 57 out of 100. (bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” Investors Bond prices push down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. so low readings are better than high ones
*A change of less than $20 in gold prices or less than 40 cents on oil prices is a fraction of 1%. That’s why we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Alerts about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and Federal Reserve intervention in the mortgage market, you can look at the data above and get a pretty good idea of what will happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still call daily. And are usually correct. But our record for accuracy won’t regain its former high until things go well.
So use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to trust them. But, with that caveat, so far Mortgage rates are likely to drop slightly today. But keep in mind that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find and lock low rates (August 30, 2021)
Important Notes on Today’s Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Generally, mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and is in crisis. But there are exceptions. Reading ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care
- Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised.
- Lenders differ. You may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate fluctuations – although they all usually follow a broader trend over time.
- When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same.
- Refinance rates are generally close to purchase. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed a gap that previously existed
So a lot is happening here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?
Today and so on
With Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech last Friday, we can finally stop going about the taping. But I’m afraid this topic will come back in just a few weeks.
Meanwhile, the markets remain difficult to read. Commentators claim that investors are concerned about the economic consequences of an increase in the COVID-19 delta variant, thus keeping bond yields and mortgage rates low. And yet the same investors are talking about stocks. Over the weekend, Investopedia reported in an e-newsletter on last Friday’s business:
The S&P 500 closed above the 4,500 mark for the first time, while the Nasdaq jumped more than 1%, also hitting an all-time high. The Dow was up more than 200 points, just 170 points from its best close ever. All three major averages ended the week in positive territory.
So how concerned can investors really be about the delta version?
Last week, I reported in a New York Times story about how banks face overflowing coffers and low demand for borrowing. And it’s forcing them to buy U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS, a type of bond that directly affects mortgage rates), even if they don’t want to. To me, that sounds like a more convincing explanation — with the Fed’s heavy buying of both — for today’s uberlow mortgage rates.
And, if I’m right, we may have to wait for the Fed to start reducing its purchases of MBS before mortgage rates go higher or lower. But that could happen on September 22, when the Fed will next host a news conference after a meeting of its monetary policy body, the Federal Open Market Committee.
nothing is certain
Of course, things could have worked out differently. My analysis may be wrong. (No, really.) Or an economically significant event could come out of left field that changes everything.
This Friday’s monthly employment status report probably won’t change everything. But it is the likely event on this week’s calendar that is most likely to change some things. Whether this happens or not will depend on the data in it. So just be aware that we are moving towards it.
For more background, read Saturday’s weekend edition of this column. And my colleague Tim Lucas’ long-term forecast, Mortgage Interest Rate Forecasts and Trends: Will Rates Lower in September 2021?
For much of 2020, the overall trend of mortgage rates was markedly downward. And according to Freddie Mac, a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year.
The most recent weekly record low occurred on January 7, when it was 2.65% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. But then the trend reversed and rates rose.
However, since April those increases have mostly been replaced by declines, although usually smaller. Freddy’s August 26 report puts that weekly average 2.87% (0.6 with fees and marks), UP From last week’s 2.86%.
Expert Mortgage Rate Forecasting
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3/21 and Q4/21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1/22 and Q2/22).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie and MBA was updated on Aug. 19. But Freddy’s was last refreshed on July 15 because it now publishes these figures only quarterly. And its forecast is already looking stale.
However, given so many unknowables, the entire current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual.
All these forecasters expect higher mortgage rates soon. But the differences between the predictions are stark. And it could be that Fannie isn’t building in the Federal Reserve’s tapering of its support for mortgage rates, while Freddie and the MBA are.
Get your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been stymied by the pandemic. And they’re limiting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably get the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop more comprehensively.
But, of course, you should compare purchases comprehensively, no matter what type of mortgage you want. as a federal regulator Consumer Financial Protection Bureau They say:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but Saving even a quarter point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars. over the life of your loan.
Verify your new rate (August 30, 2021)
mortgage rate method
Mortgage Reports fetches rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at the average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you can find on the market. In addition, we keep average rates for similar loan types. For example, the FHA fixed with the FHA fixed. The end result is a nice snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.